The 2025 holiday season is shaping up to be one of the biggest yet for online sales. According to Adobe’s latest forecast, U.S. consumers are expected to spend more than $253 billion online between November and December—an increase of over 5% from last year. Mobile shopping, flexible payment options, social media, and AI-powered shopping tools are all expected to play major roles in shaping buyer behavior.
For small business owners, this is not just a statistic—it’s a call to action. The months ahead can make or break your year if you position yourself wisely.
Related – How to Leverage Facebook to Grow Holiday Sales This Season
Key Takeaways for Entrepreneurs
- U.S. holiday online spending is projected to hit $253 billion, with mobile driving more than half of purchases.
- Cyber Week (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) will account for nearly 20% of holiday sales.
- Buy Now, Pay Later is expected to jump 11%, signaling the need for flexible payment options.
- Social media-driven shopping is projected to grow 51% year-over-year.
- Consumers will respond to competitive discounts and AI-powered shopping tools when deciding what and where to buy.
Prioritize Mobile-First Shopping Experiences
With 56% of all holiday spending expected to happen on smartphones, your online store must be mobile-friendly. That means fast load times, clear navigation, and seamless checkout. If your customers struggle on mobile, they’ll quickly move to a competitor.
Leverage Cyber Week Strategically
Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday remain high-stakes sales days. Adobe projects Black Friday sales alone will climb 8.3% to $11.7 billion. Plan promotions and advertising campaigns early, but spread deals across the season to capture buyers who shop before and after the big days.
Offer Flexible Payment Options
Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) spending is projected to exceed $20 billion this season. Entrepreneurs who offer BNPL at checkout can win customers who want flexibility, especially for higher-priced items. This is particularly important if you sell electronics, apparel, or furniture—categories driving the most growth.
Use Social Media as a Sales Channel
Social-driven sales are expected to surge, with revenue tied to social media traffic growing by 51%. This means Instagram, TikTok, and even LinkedIn campaigns can directly influence holiday purchases. Collaborations with influencers or micro-influencers can give your brand extra reach during this high-traffic season.
Leverage AI Tools for Customer Engagement
Generative AI shopping assistants are becoming part of the buying journey. Consumers are turning to AI tools for research, product recommendations, and gift ideas. Entrepreneurs can use AI to improve customer service chat, personalize email campaigns, and create engaging product descriptions that resonate.
Discount Smartly
Shoppers expect discounts, but deep price cuts are not the only draw. Adobe notes that buyers are “trading up” to higher-ticket items when deals make them more affordable. Instead of racing to the bottom, consider bundling products or offering free shipping to drive perceived value.
Final Thought
The holiday season is not just about capturing sales—it’s about building relationships that last into the new year. Whether it’s optimizing your mobile site, partnering with influencers, or offering more payment options, the key is to meet customers where they are. With billions on the line, preparation now could set you up for your best quarter yet.
Source: Adobe 2025 Holiday Shopping Forecast